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THE LAST CALL • FRI JUL 10
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THE CHIP SCARE DIDN'T LAST. THE IPO PROVED WHY.
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Tuesday morning, chip stocks suffered their ugliest decline in months. Micron declined almost five percent, Intel dropped nine, all on fear that a Chinese startup's homemade AI chip could shrink the entire industry's runway.
Three days later, the same industry priced the largest foreign stock offering in Wall Street history. Read that again.
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Chips get the headlines this week, but every EV, AI robot, and defense platform downstream still needs the same raw material to actually run, and it isn't optional.
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THE STORY
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The trigger was straightforward enough. A report indicated DeepSeek, the Chinese AI lab, is building its own chip to diminish its dependence on Nvidia. That arrived the same day Samsung reported record profits that still missed the elevated bar investors had set for AI names. Traders interpreted both stories the same way, concluding the rally had outrun what the business could actually deliver.
Micron declined nearly five percent. Western Digital and SanDisk each declined more than four percent. Intel dropped nine percent in a single session, while equipment manufacturers like Lam Research and Applied Materials lost more than six. Nvidia barely moved.
We described it as capping Nvidia's ceiling on Tuesday. Turned out the ceiling held steady, the floor gave way one aisle over, inside memory and equipment, the unglamorous layer that actually builds the AI buildout. Capital that fled chips didn't retreat into cash either. It pursued whatever was working, oil tankers on Wednesday after the Iran strikes, then straight back into chips by Thursday.
By Thursday the fear had largely subsided. Five chip names ripped double digits at once, Micron back above nine hundred ninety, AMD up more than five percent to a fresh multi-week high. That same day, SK Hynix priced its Nasdaq debut at $149 a share, a $26.5 billion raise, the largest listing ever completed by a foreign company on American soil. Demand arrived near seven times the shares available. Funds tied to Baillie Gifford, Coatue, and Situational Awareness Partners alone wanted $7 billion of stock.
Those shares start trading today under the ticker SKHY. It's the payoff to a narrative that began Monday in a considerably different mood. We'd asked whether Wall Street was quietly betting against its own rally, professionals net short while retail margin debt sat at a record $1.42 trillion. The chip scare Tuesday looked like validation the skeptics were correct. It lasted about forty-eight hours.
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WHAT'S SETTING UP
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The real test isn't today's pop, it's whether SKHY holds $149. Hold above that level and it signals the appetite for AI infrastructure names represents genuine capital, not a nervous re-entry after a two-day panic. Slip below it and the bulls who purchased this week's dip need a fresh justification to remain.
Next week hands the whole chip story its report card. TSMC reports Thursday, the closest thing markets have to one earnings call that can confirm or kill the entire AI capex thesis, foundry capacity and pricing, all at once. ASML follows a day earlier with the equipment side of the same story.
Zoom out and a pattern is repeating. Chip stocks scare the market, then chip stocks pay the market back. That's three Fridays running now.
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ON DECK NEXT WEEK
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MON JUL 13 · The leverage. SKUU and SKDD, leveraged SK Hynix ETFs, are set to launch, giving traders a way to lever up on the exact name that just tested the market's nerve.
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TUE JUL 14 · The temperature check. June CPI lands alongside first-look Q2 earnings from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs.
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WED JUL 15 · The equipment read. ASML reports overseas, plus earnings from Morgan Stanley and BlackRock.
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THU JUL 16 · The report card. TSMC earnings, the clearest single read on AI chip demand, right after Netflix reports after the close.
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CATCH UP • FROM THE ARCHIVE
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THE BOTTOM LINE
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The lesson of the week isn't that the AI trade is fragile, it's that the trade is considerably bigger than any single company's stock chart, DeepSeek included.
Everything here is simply what's on our radar and how we're thinking about it, not a set of instructions, and markets never play out exactly the way anyone sketches them, so do your own homework and enjoy the weekend.
Scare the market for two days and it forgives you. Give it a $26 billion reason to believe, and it throws you a parade.
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Stay Locked In
The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz
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Energy Exploration Technologies, Inc. (“EnergyX”) has engaged Main Street Betz to publish this communication in connection with EnergyX’s ongoing Regulation A offering. Main Street Betz has been paid in cash and may receive additional compensation. Main Street Betz and/or its affiliates do not currently hold securities of EnergyX. This compensation and any current or future ownership interest could create a conflict of interest. Please consider this disclosure alongside EnergyX’s offering materials. EnergyX’s Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Offers and sales may be made only by means of the qualified offering circular. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com. Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only and should not imply similar results.
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