The SpaceX problem nobody's talking about

THE FLASH

LAUNCH WINDOW

Tonight, SpaceX prices the largest IPO in market history.

Tomorrow at the open, SPCX starts trading on the Nasdaq, and your group chat is about to lose its mind over the wrong thing.

Editor's Note: Before we get into the real mechanics, we wanted to bring an important message to your attention about the SpaceX IPO.

Dear Reader,

Dr. Skousen here.

Tomorrow morning…

Wall Street's is expected to launch trading for Elon's new "mega-company"… SpaceX.

Once that happens, the pre-IPO window – where all the real money gets made - closes for good.

But there is still time.

Albeit… not much.

I've already helped over 40,000 people discover the "access code" in anticipation of this day.

If you haven't already received the 5-letter code I've been sharing, click here now to learn more.

There's less than 24 hours left.

After tomorrow's bell, the opportunity is gone.

Again, click here before its too late.

Yours for peace, prosperity, and liberty, AEIOU,

Dr. Mark Skousen
Macroeconomic Strategist, The Oxford Club

P.S. Even if you do nothing else today, grab my free pre-IPO 'SpaceX' ticker. No credit card. No email. Just click here before the bell.

This ad is sent on behalf of The Oxford Club. 105 W Monument St, Baltimore, Maryland 21201.

THE PLAY EVERYONE'S MISSING IS AFTER THE BELL

The play everyone's talking about is buying SPCX at the open. That one's obvious, and obvious is usually crowded.

The real story is what the index machine does next.

SpaceX debuts with a brutally thin float, only about 3 to 4% of shares actually trade tomorrow (float = the slice of a company that's actually available to buy), with founder stock locked up for a year. Then a Nasdaq rule change kicks in: a company this size can be fast-tracked into the Nasdaq-100 in roughly 15 trading days, landing around early July.

That forces every index fund tracking the Nasdaq-100 to buy. Estimates run $22 to 27 billion of mechanical buying chasing that tiny float.

Now the part nobody connects. To buy SpaceX, those funds have to sell something. The roughly $600 billion tracking the Nasdaq-100 has to trim what it already owns to make room, which means quiet, mechanical selling pressure on the giants already inside QQQ, names like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

It's already bleeding into the obvious proxies. Tesla is catching the halo bid, and space names like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are running today on pure sympathy. We've been mapping these second-order ripples in recent issues.

THE OTHER SIDE: At $135, SpaceX may be carrying roughly 92x sales while still losing money, and the S&P 500 said no, rejecting fast-track inclusion on June 4 over exactly those losses. One firm pegs fair value closer to $780 billion, about half the IPO tag. A float this thin can decouple from fundamentals in either direction, so the first 15 to 30 minutes tomorrow could be violent.

THE LEVEL

$135 is the number to watch, that's the IPO price and tomorrow's line in the sand. Open well above it and the demand wave is real, already "front-running" the index add. Fade back toward it and the "it's all priced in" crowd was right.

The bigger clock is the roughly 15-trading-day countdown to Nasdaq-100 inclusion around early July. That's when the forced buying actually shows up, whether the tape wants it or not.

BOTTOM LINE

Don't chase the open just to chase it, tomorrow's first half hour is a coin flip. The cleaner read may be watching QQQ into early July, when the index has to buy SpaceX whether it wants to or not.

Stay Locked In,
The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz

DISCLAIMER

We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.

Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.

Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.

We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trading and investing is risky. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly.

The SpaceX problem nobody's talking about

THE PLAY EVERYONE'S MISSING IS AFTER THE BELL

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