OPERATION EPIC FURY

SUNDAY • MARCH 1, 2026 | WEEK AHEAD EDITION

Last night, the world's largest prediction market shattered its own all-time record, with over $500 million wagered on a single question: would the US strike Iran?

They did.

Ayatollah Khamenei is dead, along with his Defense Minister, IRGC Commander, and roughly 40 senior officials.

Iran has already fired retaliatory missiles at US military bases in the region, Saudi Arabia's stock market opened down 5% Sunday morning, and US equity futures, the ones that price every stock in your portfolio, haven't traded yet.

They open tonight at 6:00 PM ET.

Every sector in your watchlist is about to get a new price tag, and here's what we're watching, what we're ignoring, and the one setup worth mapping before the open.

Chibi ape trader in a dark war room watching world map light up red — focused, coiled, ready.

Futures open tonight at 6:00 PM ET. First real pricing of everything.

Massive oil tanker navigating a narrow strait with black smoke rising from the horizon — the Hormuz chokepoint.

The Strait of Hormuz: 20% of global oil. One IRGC decision away from closing.

WORLD REPORT

THE HORMUZ EQUATION

The number that matters most for Monday: 57.5%.

That's Polymarket's current probability that Iran's IRGC closes the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint where roughly 20% of all global oil flows each day, by March 31, and WTI oil at $67 has barely begun to price that in.

With Iran already firing retaliatory missiles at US bases, the escalation scenario is live, not theoretical. If the Strait closes, tankers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two-plus weeks to every voyage, day rates spike, oil could push toward $90, and inflation re-acceleration becomes the Fed's problem heading into the March 17-18 meeting. We wrote about exactly this Fed trap two weeks ago.

Cut rates and inflation rips higher. Hike rates and the already-limping GDP gets choked out. Jerome Powell has no clean move heading into March 17-18. Watch his language carefully.

WHO WINS, WHO LOSES, AND ONE NAME NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

Energy ($XOM, $OXY, $CVX) and defense ($LMT, $RTX, $NOC) were already trending higher before any of this was confirmed Friday, and the real repricing may not have started.

Gold at $5,247.90 and silver at $93.29 are building a safe-haven bid, and Bank of America had a $6,000 target on gold before this weekend even happened.

Airlines ($UAL, $DAL) and cruise lines ($CCL) could gap down hard Monday, as fuel costs spike and nobody is booking Middle East travel right now.

The name most people aren't watching yet:

$FRO (Frontline, one of the world's largest oil tanker operators) was sitting at $38.08 Friday and has barely reacted. If Hormuz closes and tankers take the long way home, shipping day rates could explode. This is exactly the kind of second-order setup we hunt before everyone else figures it out.

BULL: REGIME CHANGE

New Iranian leadership opens nuclear talks, sanctions ease, oil flows, and the Fed finds room to cut. Markets could recover sharply off the initial shock.

BEAR: ESCALATION

Hormuz closes, oil moves toward $90, inflation re-accelerates, and the Fed is paralyzed. Conflict bleeds into Q2, and small caps and tech take the worst of the selloff into quarter-end.

Polymarket only gives the Iranian regime a 21.8% chance of surviving to March 31, but a 57.5% chance the Strait closes before that. Both can be true at the same time. Plan for both before tonight's futures open.

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Surprise, surprise; gold crashed 16%. Silver plunged 34%. Bitcoin dropped to 1 year lows.

All supposedly "uncorrelated" assets moving in lockstep largely because of overleveraged margin.

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PREDICTION MARKET CORNER

WHERE REAL MONEY SITS

Polymarket just set a new all-time platform record: $500M+ wagered on Iran markets in 24 hours. This is what real money is pricing right now.

KHAMENEI OUT BY FEB 28

99.9% YES, $62.8M traded in 24 hours. Settled. The question now is what happens next.

HORMUZ CLOSES BY MARCH 31

57.5% YES, $1.3M volume. The single biggest macro variable this week. Oil at $67 hasn't priced a closure in. Watch this number daily.

S&P 500 OPENS UP MONDAY

Only 36% YES. The crowd is pricing a 64% chance of a down open. Expect the first 15 to 30 minutes after 9:30 AM ET to be volatile. Have your levels mapped before the bell, not during it.

FED — MARCH 17-18 • NO CHANGE

95.9% hold. Jerome Powell is frozen between an oil shock and a slowing economy. Press conference language carries more weight than usual this cycle.

BAD BEAT CORNER

THE $6.47M LESSON

Source: Polymarket / @anoin123 — public profile.

Meet anoin123 on Polymarket: 282 predictions, biggest single win ever $173,000.

He was holding NO positions across three Iran markets, each bought at prices between 77 and 93 cents, which is what you pay when you believe something is essentially impossible.

US STRIKES IRAN BY FEB 27 — NO	avg 92.7¢ \| $1.2M+
KHAMENEI OUT BY FEB 28 — NO	avg 92.3¢
KHAMENEI OUT BY MAR 31 — NO	avg 77.1¢

Operation Epic Fury hit at dawn Saturday.

All three markets resolved YES, his positions collapsed from $3.0M to roughly $1.0M overnight, and the one-day P&L landed at -$6,470,618.

His biggest single win ever on the platform was $173,000, and he lost 37 times that in one afternoon.

The lesson isn't "don't trade prediction markets." It's that when you're paying 92 cents on a NO, you aren't trading probability anymore, you're praying, and geopolitics humbles prayers fast.

We're rooting for the comeback, anoin123. Get back up, hit 'em with the combination.

Chibi ape in a general's hat pointing at a fighter jet schematic and rising chart on a chalkboard.

Every missile fired needs to be replaced. Lockheed is first in line.

THE BLUEPRINT

$LMT — THE DEFENSE FLOOR

Lockheed Martin Corp • BLUE CHIP

What They Do: Lockheed Martin builds the fighter jets, missile defense systems, and satellites the US military depends on, including the F-35 and HIMARS rocket systems deployed across active conflict zones right now.

The Vibe: Every missile fired needs to be replaced and every interceptor used needs to be restocked, and Congress tends to find money fast when the cameras are rolling on a conflict this size.

Lockheed is first in line, the stock was already moving before any of this was publicly confirmed, and we flagged the defense rotation building when the Dow hit 50K and everyone was still glazing tech.

The real repricing may not have started yet.

LAST CLOSE	$658.95 (Fri, Feb 27)
ENTRY ZONE	$650 – $670
PUKE POINT (Stop Loss Zone)	$630
COOKIEZ TARGET 1 (Price Target 1)	$700
COOKIEZ TARGET 2 (Price Target 2)	$740
THE PLAY	STOCK — long equity
RISK METER	4 / 10

Risk Reality: LMT is a $151B Blue Chip with the US government as its primary customer. The main risk is a rapid ceasefire that cools the defense bid overnight. The Puke Point (stop loss — the price where the thesis breaks and we exit without ego) at $630 is the line to watch.

BULL CASE

Conflict extends into Q2, Congress passes a defense supplemental, and LMT's backlog grows. Stock could push toward all-time highs.

BEAR CASE

Ceasefire within days, new Iranian leadership signals talks, and defense names give back the bid fast. Know your Puke Point before you enter.

On our radar, shared for perspective only. Never financial advice. Do your own research and never size a position you can't afford to lose.

THE WEEK AHEAD

ON DECK

MONDAY • MAR 2 • FINAL MONTH OF Q1

March is the final month of Q1, meaning institutional desks are managing quarter-end positioning on top of a live geopolitical shock. Expect fast, aggressive moves in energy and defense at the open, watch for sector rotation out of rate-sensitive names if oil gaps up hard, and keep an eye on whether the opening flush gets bought or just keeps flushing.

TUE–WED • MAR 3–4

Target ($TGT) reports Tuesday, giving us the first Q1-end read on a consumer already dealing with tariff fatigue and higher gas prices. Apple's product event Wednesday (iPhone 17, iPad Air, MacBook refresh) is either the catalyst that snaps $AAPL out of its slide, or another excuse to sell the news into a jittery market.

THU–FRI • MAR 5–6

Berkshire Hathaway, Costco ($COST), and Ross Stores ($ROST) all report. Whatever Buffett says about that $325B cash pile in this environment will move markets. The retail prints tell us whether the consumer was already pulling back before the Middle East went sideways.

MAR 17–18 • FED MEETING

Markets are pricing 95.9% probability of a hold, but this is now Powell's first post-Iran press conference, and his language on oil, inflation, and the growth outlook carries more weight than the rate decision itself. Kevin Warsh was nominated in January with Senate hearings ongoing, but Jerome Powell is still the Landlord until May 15.

THE BOTTOM LINE

KNOW YOUR LEVELS

March is the final month of Q1, a geopolitical shock just landed on top of it, and institutional desks are not going to wait for Tuesday morning to position. The traders who mapped their levels tonight are going to eat the Cookiez (realized profits) from the traders who mapped theirs at 9:31 AM Monday.

Energy and defense could offer early opportunities if the setups hold, but nobody knows how much of Friday's move gets faded in the opening minutes. Map your entry zones, know your Puke Points (stop losses, the price where your thesis breaks and you exit without ego), and have your targets locked before any of that happens.

Stay Locked In. — The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz

DISCLAIMER

We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.

Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.

Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.

We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trading and investing is risky. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly.

The one trade nobody is pricing in yet...