The market just broke its own rules

FEB. 19, 2026

We called $FIG on Tuesday. The Fed just whispered "rate hike." Buffett dumped tech. And Walmart lost its crown.

At the open, 9:30 AM EST. Wed close: S&P 6,881 / Nazzy 22,754 / Dow 49,663.

We opened red this morning.

Walmart dropped a guidance miss that spooked the tape, oil is ripping on fresh Iran escalation, Buffett's 13F showed he dumped most of his Amazon, and the FOMC minutes from yesterday are still rattling through the bond market.

But we need to start with the story everyone's talking about.

THE BLUEPRINT UPDATE

FIGGY FIGGY FIGGY
THEY SOLD THE NEWS

On Tuesday we laid out the Blueprint (the strategy) on $FIG with a $22.00–$23.50 entry zone and said earnings were the binary event to respect.

Figma reported Q4 after the bell Wednesday, and the numbers weren't close.

The stock surged roughly 21% in after-hours on Wednesday, and by midnight it looked like the SaaSpocalypse (the ongoing collapse in software valuations) had finally found its first real survivor.

Then Thursday morning happened.

The entire after-hours move evaporated, and $FIG went negative shortly after the open, trading back below Wednesday's close near the ~$23 range.

That is the SaaSpocalypse in one chart: beat every number, raise guidance, grow 40%, and the market still sells you at the open.

The SaaSpocalypse (the ongoing collapse in software stock valuations) narrative said AI was going to kill every software company.

Figma just proved its fundamentals are alive and well, but this market doesn't care about fundamentals right now, it cares about fear.

CEO Dylan Field told CNBC that software isn't going away, there's going to be way more of it than ever before, and Figma is the design layer on top of all the AI-generated code flooding the market.

More than half of customers spending over $100K annually had people using Figma Make (their AI design tool) every week during the quarter, and weekly active users on that product jumped 70% from Q3.

They kept gross margins at 86% even while scaling AI features.

If you entered the Blueprint (the strategy) zone around $22.00–$23.50, the after-hours looked like Dough (unrealized gains, looks good on paper but isn't locked in yet) was turning into Cookiez 🍪 (realized profits), but the morning reversal may have you sitting near breakeven.

The fundamentals didn't change overnight, the market's mood did.

If you missed the original entry, the stock is back near the Blueprint zone, which could offer a second chance at the setup, but only if you respect the stop and manage your risk.

Beat everything. Raised everything. Still got sold at the open.

THE INSIDER EDGE

THE LANDLORD WHISPERED
"RATE HIKE"

The FOMC minutes from the January 27–28 meeting dropped Wednesday afternoon, and they were more hawkish than anyone expected.

The Landlord (the Fed, where incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May) held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, which everyone expected.

What nobody expected: several FOMC officials openly discussed the possibility that rate hikes could be necessary if inflation stays above target.

Not one person in a footnote, but "several participants" who wanted the statement to explicitly reflect the possibility of upward adjustments to the target range.

Bitcoin dropped below $67K on the news and continued sliding overnight, sitting around $65,800 as of the open.

The 10-year yield popped from its 2-month low of 4.04% back up to 4.09%.

Gold caught a bid and pushed back toward $5,000 an ounce, sitting around $4,970 this morning.

Warsh has historically been skeptical of quantitative easing, which means the hawkish undertone in these minutes could actually intensify under new leadership.

The Landlord might raise rent.

QUICK HITS

WHAT ELSE IS MOVING

Walmart reported Q4 this morning and beat on revenue ($190.66B vs $190.43B expected) and EPS ($0.74 vs $0.73), but guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS at $2.75–$2.85, well below the $2.97 Street estimate.

The stock opened down roughly $3.71 to about $128.50, a ~4% drop, and for the first time ever, Amazon topped Walmart as the largest retailer by annual revenue ($716.9B vs $713.2B).

Oil is ripping again after Axios reported that US military intervention in Iran could come sooner than expected, and the WSJ reported Iran is ignoring core US demands in nuclear talks.

WTI is above $66, Brent above $71.

Palo Alto Networks beat on Q2 revenue ($2.59B, +15% YoY) and EPS ($1.03 vs $0.94) but guided Q3 EPS at $0.78–$0.80, well below the $0.92 estimate.

The stock dropped roughly 10% on Wednesday as the $25B CyberArk acquisition weighs on margins.

Etsy is surging 20%+ at the open after announcing it's selling Depop to eBay for $1.2B.

DoorDash is up roughly 13% at the open on strong marketplace growth that topped estimates.

Warren Buffett kept unloading tech in his final quarter as Berkshire CEO, trimming another 10.3 million Apple shares (about 4% of the position) and dumping 77% of the Amazon stake, according to Berkshire's 13F filed Tuesday. The Oracle of Omaha has been a net seller of stocks for 12 consecutive quarters, and Berkshire is now sitting on more than $380 billion in cash. That's not the kind of signal you ignore.

The Oracle took his Cookiez and left.

ON DECK

THE RADAR

FRIDAY is the big day this week: December PCE prices (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and Q4 GDP advance estimate both drop, and these could either confirm the rate hike fears or calm them down.

TUESDAY FEB 25 is the real main event: NVIDIA earnings after close, and the Meta chip partnership gives it momentum, but the AI capex debate needs an answer.

We don't think it's wise to go heavy into anything directional before Friday's prints.

BOTTOM LINE

STAY LOCKED IN

Figma just proved the SaaSpocalypse (the ongoing collapse in software valuations) doesn't kill everybody, but the market sold the news anyway, and the Blueprint (the strategy) from Tuesday's issue could be offering a second look at the entry zone.

The Landlord surprised the market with rate hike chatter, and that's a genuine shift in tone worth respecting.

Oil is moving on real escalation in Iran, not just noise.

Buffett sitting on $380B in cash after dumping tech for 12 straight quarters tells you everything about how the smartest money in the room views current valuations.

Friday's PCE and GDP are the next real catalyst, and NVDA earnings next Tuesday could move the entire market.

We're keeping our stops tight, and we think that's the smart move right now.

Disclaimer: We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.

Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.

Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.

We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez (realized profits) responsibly.