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MAIN STREET BETZ • TUESDAY, MARCH 3, 2026
OIL +7%
A TON OF STOCKS ARE BLEEDING
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S&P down 1.6%. Nazzy (Nasdaq) down 1.9%. VIX up 39%. Oil up 7%.
This is the most split tape we've seen in a long time...
There's a lot going on today, so let's get into it and the 5 names we're watching in this chaotic market.
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MARKET PULSE
MARCH 3, 2026
| ASSET |
PRICE |
DAY% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) |
$674.76 |
−1.6% |
| NAZZY (QQQ) |
$595.60 |
−1.9% |
| DOW (DIA) |
$480.20 |
−1.9% |
| BTC |
$67,256 |
−2.3% |
| GOLD |
$5,168.90 |
−2.4% |
| WTI CRUDE |
$76.22 |
+7.0% |
| 10Y YIELD |
4.11% |
+1.4% |
| VIX |
26.01 |
~+21% |
| AS OF 9:15 AM ET • MAR 3, 2026 • ET |
Everything risk-on is red. Oil is the only trade that wants to exist. Gold pulling back as institutions rotate to cash. VIX at 26 means the volatility isn't clearing before NFP Friday.
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THE INSIDER EDGE
WHAT'S ACTUALLY MOVING THE TAPE
1. Hormuz Is Shut. Oil Is Finally Doing the Math.
US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb 28. The Strait of Hormuz — a 21-mile chokepoint handling 20% of global daily oil supply — is effectively closed. Tanker traffic down ~70%, 150+ ships anchored and waiting.
Yesterday the market priced a fast resolution. WTI sat at $72. This morning Trump said the campaign could run longer than four weeks. WTI is now $76.22 and climbing.
The trade nobody was pricing in last week is now front page. And there's still a second-order move the crowd is missing — more on that in the watchlist below.
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Polymarket this morning: Hormuz stays closed through March 31 — 87% YES. That's up from 61.5% yesterday. Real money repricing duration risk, fast.
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2. A CEO Just Put $1M on His Own Stock.
Monday: SoFi CEO Anthony Noto bought 56,000 shares at $17.88 — $1,001,515 of personal cash, filed directly with the SEC. He's now the largest individual holder of the company at 11.68M shares.
This morning: SoFi announced a Mastercard partnership using its stablecoin infrastructure for faster payments. Two catalysts. Same 24-hour window. Same direction.
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Insiders sell for a hundred different reasons. They only buy for one.
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3. The Fed Has No Clean Move.
January FOMC minutes showed little support for cuts, some members floating a hike. Next meeting: March 17-18. The Landlord (Fed Chair Powell) was already stuck.
Now layer $76 oil on top. Gas follows crude at the pump within days. CPI gets messy. Cut into inflation or hold into a slowdown — there's no good option. NFP Friday at 8:30 AM ET could make all of it worse. Know your levels before then.
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Coming Up ↓
5 Names to Watch
Stocks that can move due to the war with Iran. One insider conviction play... And one contrarian tanker play the crowd still hasn't touched. Right on the other side of this message.
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PREDICTION MARKET CORNER
WHAT REAL MONEY IS PRICING IN
Polymarket ran $18M+ in Iran-related volume Monday. Three markets that matter for positioning this week.
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Hormuz closed through March 31
87% YES • $2.8M vol
Up from 61.5% yesterday. If this holds above 80%, WTI at $76 is still cheap.
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Iranian regime falls by March 31
16.1% YES • $2.7M vol
1-in-6 on full collapse. Base case: headless Iranian government with every incentive to keep the strait contested. That is the scenario where energy has the longest runway.
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Fed hikes OR cuts 50bps at March meeting
0.4% either direction • $3.8M vol
Market is certain the Fed holds March 17-18. But a hold into an oil shock is a very different hold than last month. Watch the 10Y yield at 4.11% and drifting higher.
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THE WATCHLIST
5 NAMES ON OUR RADAR
Not financial advice. Know your Puke Point (exit level where the thesis breaks) before you enter, not after.
| LARGE CAP$COP — ConocoPhillips |
$120.00 +5.8% |
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One of the world's largest independent oil and gas E&P companies.
Most direct Hormuz play. Citi raised PT to $135 Monday. Goldman projecting 24% FCF CAGR on sustained higher oil. P/E of 18.7 looks cheap if WTI heads toward $90.
| Entry |
Puke Point |
Target |
| $115 holds |
Below $112 |
$135 (Citi PT) |
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| LARGE CAP$CCJ — Cameco |
$118.50 +0.1% |
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World's largest publicly traded uranium company, fueling nuclear reactors globally.
Every government watching 20% of oil disappear through one chokepoint is doing the same math: we need nuclear. Cameco is the clearest beneficiary.
This morning: ~$2B long-term uranium supply deal with India confirmed, 22M pounds delivered 2027-2035. Contracted revenue that doesn't care about any ceasefire timeline.
| Entry |
Puke Point |
Targets |
| $115–$122 |
Below $110 |
$140 / $155 |
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| LARGE CAP$KTOS — Kratos Defense |
$90.72 +5.3% |
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Builds unmanned drones and autonomous defense systems for the US military.
This morning: ~$7M Counter-UAS (counter-drone) production contract awarded. Same day Trump said US munitions are "virtually unlimited." Drone warfare is the conflict dynamic playing out right now.
$LMT and $RTX are at all-time highs. At $15.4B market cap, KTOS still has room to re-rate, and it is the name fewer people are watching.
| Entry |
Puke Point |
Targets |
| $86–$92 |
Below $83 |
$100 / $115 |
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| LARGE CAP$SOFI — SoFi Technologies |
$18.06 +1.7% |
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Digital bank built for your phone, offering loans, investing, and checking without a branch on the street.
CEO bought 56,000 shares at $17.88 Monday, $1,001,515 personal cash, SEC-filed. Largest individual holder at 11.68M shares.
This morning: Mastercard partnership announced for stablecoin-powered payments. Two signals, same 24-hour window, same direction. If it breaks below where the CEO bought, the signal was noise.
| Entry |
Puke Point |
Targets |
| $17.50–$18.50 |
Below $17 |
$21 / $25 |
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| SMALL CAP$STNG — Scorpio Tankers |
$77.32 −2.2% |
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One of the world's largest product tanker fleets, moving refined petroleum across global shipping lanes.
The contrarian name on this list. Down 2.2% while oil rips 7%, because the market hasn't priced the rerouting math.
When Hormuz closes, tankers skip the 2-day strait and reroute 3-4 weeks around the Cape of Good Hope. Same fleet, fewer trips per year, effective supply shrinks, day rates rip.
Highest risk name here, ceasefire kills the thesis fast. But with Hormuz closure at 87% odds, STNG may be the most mispriced name in the energy complex right now.
| Entry |
Puke Point |
Targets |
| $76–$80 |
Below $73 |
$90 / $105 |
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ON DECK
THE WEEK AHEAD
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TODAY — Tuesday, March 3
ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 AM ET. Watch WTI at open. Clear above $78 and energy names follow. First 30 min is volatile price discovery on everything.
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Wednesday, March 5
ADP Private Payrolls, 8:15 AM ET + ISM Services. Any Fed speaker on oil and inflation moves bonds. Watch the 10Y.
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FRIDAY, March 6 — HIGH IMPACT
Non-Farm Payrolls, 8:30 AM ET. Biggest print of the month into the most volatile week in years. Hot jobs + oil shock = rate cuts go from July to never. Know your levels before this one.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
CHAOS IS A LADDER.
KNOW WHICH RUNGS TO GRAB.
Yesterday the market priced a short war. This morning Trump is saying otherwise, Hormuz odds hit 87%, and VIX is at 26 with NFP still three days out.
The Dough (unrealized gains) is stacking in energy and defense right now. The Cookiez (realized, locked-in profits) go to whoever had a plan before the open and didn't improvise when it got loud.
Set your levels tonight. 🔒
— The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz
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DISCLAIMER
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We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.
Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.
We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trading and investing is risky. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly.
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