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The Macro
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Saturday night, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. starts destroying their power plants.
That clock runs out tonight. Here's what we're watching.
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The Insider Edge
THE HORMUZ BINARY
Iran's Revolutionary Guard already responded: if a single power plant gets hit, the strait closes completely and indefinitely. That's 20% of the world's oil.
Trump's national security advisor confirmed on Sunday morning TV that the U.S. would start with Iran's largest power plant if the deadline passes.
Every position you hold should be viewed through one lens: what happens if we wake up Tuesday to $120 oil, and what happens if we get a de-escalation headline and $80 oil.
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If Iran Blinks
Oil dumps to $80-85. Airlines, cruise lines, and consumer discretionary rip. Energy longs get torched. VIX collapses. Massive relief rally.
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If Trump Strikes
Oil past $120, possibly $140. VIX could breach 35. Only safe harbors: energy and gold.
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Don't be a hero at the open. The first 30 minutes could be chaotic.
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EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
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Beyond The Headlines
3 CATALYSTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
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Catalyst #1
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The Fertilizer Bomb Nobody Is Talking About
One-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz.
The timing is brutal... this is the spring planting window in the American Midwest. Urea prices at the New Orleans import hub have surged more than 30% since the crisis started.
If the strait stays closed through April, the food price shock could make the oil spike look like a warm-up act.
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Names On Our Radar
$MOS (Mosaic) dropped more than 10% last week despite being a North American producer. $CF (CF Industries) sold off hard too. If de-escalation hits, these could bounce first.
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Catalyst #2
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Gold Just Had Its Worst Week Since 1983
Gold dropped 11% last week... during an active war. Worst weekly decline in over 40 years.
When gold sells off in a risk-off event, it means margin calls. Traders liquidating their most liquid assets to cover losses. Same pattern from March 2020 and the 2008 financial crisis, but the magnitude this time is historic.
If the forced selling clears and the crisis escalates, gold could snap back hard. And Sunday night, gold is still selling... it touched $4,100 at one point.
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Names On Our Radar
$GLD (Gold ETF), $GDX (Gold Miners), $NEM (Newmont, world's largest gold miner). After a 40-year historic flush, these could be the contrarian play if escalation continues and the liquidation wave passes.
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Catalyst #3
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The Fed Is Cornered — Friday's PCE Could Seal It
Last Wednesday the Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% and raised their inflation forecast to 2.7% PCE. Powell's exact words: "Nobody knows."
Cut rates and $100+ oil supercharges inflation. Hold rates and the economy, already posting just 0.7% GDP growth, tips into contraction. That's stagflation.
Goldman has recession odds at 25%... and that was before the ultimatum. Markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for 2026, with some traders starting to price in a hike.
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Names On Our Radar
$XOM, $CVX, $OXY — the hedge if stagflation plays out. On the flip side, $DAL, $UAL, $CCL are coiled springs if de-escalation drops oil back to $80.
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Prediction Market Corner
WHAT REAL MONEY SAYS
Forget the talking heads. Here's what people with skin in the game are pricing on Polymarket:
| War continues past March 31 |
91% |
| Iranian regime survives |
75% |
| U.S. ground invasion before 2027 |
59% |
$22.9 million in volume on the "US forces enter Iran" market alone. The crowd says this isn't ending soon.
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EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
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NVIDIA's Secret Masterplan
In 2016, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang hand-delivered the world's first AI supercomputer to Elon Musk and OpenAI.
Now, nine years later...
Jensen just delivered the world's first "AI factory supersystem" to Sam Altman and OpenAI.
And tech legend Jeff Brown says early investors have a chance to pocket gains of 200%, 300%, 750%, even 1,200% or more...
After Jensen Huang's shocking live reveal as early as March 16, 2026.
Click here to see NVIDIA's secret master plan while you can.
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The Watchlist
NAMES WITH CATALYSTS
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Rigetti ships 108-qubit quantum system this week. Already delayed once from Q4. Currently at 99% fidelity, targeting 99.5%. An $8.4M India government contract and a Japan purchase order are riding on delivery. Hit spec = validates the entire quantum roadmap. Second delay = credibility torched. Hard binary with a March 31 deadline.
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R2 production starts in weeks at the Illinois plant. Employee builds rolling off the line now, first customer deliveries targeted by end of spring. The biggest EV launch of 2026. Rivian's sales chief said SXSW response "exceeded expectations." 20-25K units targeted for the year, orders open June. Any delivery photo or production milestone could move this. Oil at $100 is also a quiet tailwind for the EV demand narrative.
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Converting crypto mining facilities into AI compute centers with Starwood Capital Group ($125B AUM). Targeting 1 GW of near-term capacity, pathway to 2.5 GW. Stock jumped 17% on the announcement last month. 50M+ daily volume. Honest caveat: this name is still heavily correlated to Bitcoin. If BTC dumps, MARA dumps regardless of the AI pivot. Size accordingly.
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On Deck
THE WEEK AHEAD
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MON • TODAY
Flash PMIs (9:45 AM ET) — First post-war economic data. Contraction = stagflation is real. Trump ultimatum expires (~7:44 PM ET).
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TUE
New Home Sales + Consumer Confidence — First wartime sentiment read. Watch for a cliff.
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THU
Q4 GDP Third Estimate (8:30 AM ET) — Second estimate was 0.7%. Lower revision = recession chatter gets loud.
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FRI
February PCE (8:30 AM ET) — January hit a two-year high. Hot print = rate cuts off the table.
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Bottom Line
THE PLAY
You don't need to predict which scenario plays out. You need to be ready for both.
Know your Puke Points. Size for a 2-3% gap in either direction. This is the week for discipline, not conviction.
Stay Locked In.
— The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz
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Disclaimer
We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.
Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your 'diamond hands.' It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.
We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trading and investing is risky. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly.
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