Tonight decides if the AI trade lives or dies

Three things happened in the last 24 hours that could move your money this week.

The Supreme Court nuked Trump's tariff regime 6-3.

Trump delivered the longest State of the Union in TV history and said tariffs would replace the income tax.

And in about 6 hours, Jensen Huang reports earnings on a ~$4.7 trillion company that basically decides whether the AI trade lives or dies.

Let's get into it. 🔥

MARKET PULSE

THE SCOREBOARD

AS OF ~9:50 AM ET • FEB 25, 2026

Tech leading, VIX dropping nearly 5%, and gold above $5,200 while everyone waits for Jensen to speak. The calm before the storm.

TWO HOURS. FIVE EMPTY SUPREME COURT SEATS. ONE VERY LONG NIGHT.

THE INSIDER EDGE

SCOTUS KILLED THE TARIFFS.
TRUMP SAID "WATCH ME."

Last Friday the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were unconstitutional, wiping out roughly three-quarters of his tariff revenue in one decision.

Trump slapped a new 15% baseline tariff under Section 122 authority within 48 hours.

Then he stood in front of five empty Supreme Court seats last night and said tariffs would one day replace the federal income tax entirely.

No cap (dead serious), he actually said that.

The old IEEPA regime was projected to raise roughly $2 trillion over a decade. The new Section 122 tariffs? About $668 billion, and they expire in 150 days.

That's a $1.3 trillion revenue hole that somebody has to fill.

The market is shrugging because traders are treating this as a net positive for importers. FedEx already filed for a refund. But Goldman Sachs is saying consumers are stuck with higher prices anyway because retailers already baked the tariff costs into their margins and aren't giving that back.

Think of it like this: the landlord raised your rent 25% last year because "costs went up." The costs came back down, but your rent isn't dropping. That spread is now pure margin for the landlord.

The two SOTU moments that actually matter for your portfolio:

1. 401(k) match for everyone. Up to $1,000/year for workers without employer retirement plans. If this passes, that's millions of new dollars flowing into index funds annually. Bullish for broad market ETFs.

2. Congressional insider trading ban. Trump called for the Stop Insider Trading Act. We'll believe it when we see it, but the headline alone should make certain lawmakers nervous.

But none of this matters for the next 6 hours, because there's only one thing this market cares about right now.

$4.7 TRILLION. ONE EARNINGS CALL. NO PRESSURE, JENSEN.

EARNINGS WATCH

NVDA REPORTS TONIGHT

$NVDA reports Q4 fiscal 2026 after the close today.

The company guided for roughly $65 billion in revenue, GAAP gross margins around 74.8%, and operating expenses near $6.7 billion. The stock is at $195.80 right now, up 1.5% on the day, with a $4.7 trillion market cap and a P/E around 48.

Everyone expects a beat. That's not the question.

The question is whether Jensen delivers forward guidance that confirms the AI capex supercycle is still accelerating, or whether he hedges on the Rubin transition timeline and gives the market an excuse to sell the news.

Bull case: Revenue crushes $65B, next-quarter guide comes in above $70B, Jensen says Rubin demand is "unprecedented," and the stock gaps toward $210+.

Bear case: A beat with soft guidance triggers the "sell the news" trap. The stock could pull back to $175-$180 and drag every AI name with it.

Real talk: this is a binary event. If you're not comfortable with a 10-15% move in either direction overnight, this is not your trade.

Stay Locked In (focused, no noise), know your levels, and don't be a Squatter (bag holder) into the close without a plan for both outcomes.

BACK FROM THE DEAD. LITERALLY.

THE BLUEPRINT

$WOLF — THE SILICON CARBIDE COMEBACK

The Ticker: $WOLF — Wolfspeed Inc.

Wolfspeed filed for Chapter 11 in June 2025, slashed 70% of its debt, cut annual interest by 60%, and emerged in September as a leaner silicon carbide chipmaker with up to $2.5 billion in CHIPS Act and Apollo financing behind it.

The feds just cleared a Japanese strategic investor to take an equity stake.

The stock bottomed near $13.48 on February 5 and has ripped roughly 50% to $20.20 in three weeks on rising volume. Market cap is about $908 million, firmly small-cap territory.

Here's the second-order play: while everyone is obsessing over NVDA and the AI chip story, the power semiconductor market that makes EVs, data center cooling, and industrial power grids actually function is quietly becoming a bottleneck.

Silicon carbide handles higher voltages and temperatures than traditional silicon, and Wolfspeed is one of the few domestic producers. With tariff chaos making foreign supply chains even less reliable, a U.S.-based chip play with a clean balance sheet might be in exactly the right place at exactly the right time.

Risk Level: 7/10. Post-bankruptcy small cap that just ripped 50% in three weeks. The upside is real, but so is the volatility. Size it smart.

Bull case: CHIPS Act funding accelerates, silicon carbide demand from EVs and data centers keeps growing, clean balance sheet lets management actually execute. Could run back toward pre-bankruptcy levels in the high $20s.

Bear case: EV market cooling, potential CHIPS Act disbursement delays, and the stock already ran hard from February lows. A pullback to $17-$18 wouldn't be unusual for a name this volatile.

PREDICTION MARKET CORNER

WHAT THE REAL MONEY IS SAYING

📈 The Fed is frozen. Polymarket has a March hike at 0.5% and a 50bps+ cut at 0.7%. Nothing is happening. CME FedWatch has June as the earliest plausible cut at ~49%, and even that's drifting lower after January minutes showed several members openly discussing rate hikes.

🌍 Iran is the sleeper risk. Polymarket has U.S. strikes on Iran by March 31 at 60.5%, with $4 million in 24-hour volume. That's real conviction and real money. If this escalates, oil rips, defense stocks pop, and risk assets take a hit.

💰 Tariff clock is ticking. The new Section 122 tariffs expire in 150 days. The EU already postponed its trade deal vote. FedEx is suing for refunds. Don't assume the tariff story is over just because SCOTUS weighed in.

ON DECK

REST OF THE WEEK

BOTTOM LINE

STAY LOCKED IN

SCOTUS rewrote the tariff playbook, Trump delivered a two-hour SOTU selling 401(k)s for everyone, and the single most important earnings call of 2026 drops in a few hours.

Three narratives colliding in one 24-hour window.

Don't chase NVDA before the number drops. Keep stops tight. And if you're in cash looking for a setup, WOLF might be the under-the-radar name that rewards patience.

The market wants to go higher, but it needs Jensen to give it permission tonight.

We'll be back tomorrow with the full NVDA breakdown. 🎯

— The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz