FEB. 11, 2026
The economy added more than double the jobs expected, but it also erased 898,000 from last year. Both are true at the same time.
| DAILY MARKET BRIEF |
| MARKET PULSE | AT CLOSE • FEB 11 |
| S&P 500 | ~flat (mixed) | NASDAQ | ▼ (megacaps weak) |
| DOW | ~flat (faded rally) | BTC | ~$67,000 ▼ |
| 10Y | 4.17% ▲ | 2Y | 3.50% ▲ (spiked to 3.55%) |
| IGV (Software) | ▼ 2.6% (still bleeding) | DXY | ▲ (dollar strong) |
The delayed January jobs report finally dropped this morning, and it delivered the most confusing set of numbers in recent memory.
The headline said 130,000 new jobs, more than double the 55,000 the Street was expecting.
"GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED!" Trump posted on Truth Social.
Sounds bullish, right?
Then you read the fine print and realize 2025 was WAY worse than anyone told us.
This report is a Rorschach test. Let's break down what actually matters.
898K jobs that never existed, peak ghost office energy. 👻
THE INSIDER EDGE
THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE REVISED
🟢 THE GOOD
January added 130K jobs vs 55K expected, the strongest month since December 2024 and a welcome sign after 2025 averaged just 15K a month (we'll get to that).
Healthcare carried with 82K new positions, social assistance added 42K, and construction chipped in 33K. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%.
The household survey was even stronger, showing 528K new workers with the labor force participation rate ticking up to 62.5%.
If you just read the headline, the labor market is stabilizing. Not booming, not collapsing, just... stabilizing. Which after the ghost town that was 2025, feels like a win.
🔴 THE BAD
Federal government jobs fell by 34K as the DOGE layoffs from last year officially hit the payroll count. Since October 2024, federal employment is down 327,000 jobs, or roughly 11% according to the BLS.
Financial activities lost 22K jobs with insurance carriers getting hit hardest. The SaaSpocalypse is showing up in the real economy now, not just on stock tickers.
Wages came in hot at 0.4% month-over-month, 0.1% above estimates, with annual growth at 3.7%. That's sticky enough to make The Landlord uncomfortable. The market immediately repriced, with odds of a March cut dropping from 37% to just 6% and the next expected move pushed out to July.
🟡 THE REVISED (This is the real story)
Here's what matters more than anything else in this report.
The BLS released its final benchmark revisions for 2025, and they were brutal. The total downward revision: negative 898,000 jobs. Nearly a million jobs that we were told existed in 2025... just didn't.
| 2025 Jobs (old count) | +584K total (~49K/mo avg) |
| 2025 Jobs (revised) | +181K total (~15K/mo avg) |
| Ghost Jobs Erased | -898,000 |
Read that again.
The economy was averaging 15,000 jobs a month in 2025, not 49,000 like we were being told in real-time. Every single month in 2025 got revised down. The labor market was in far worse shape than anyone realized, and the data that informed The Landlord's decisions all year was wrong.
This is why we trust Prediction Markets over government data. By the time the real numbers show up, the market has already moved. The Suits were making decisions on ghost data for 12 months.
898,000 jobs just got shredded. Somebody call the Suits. 📄
SO WHAT
THE GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS PARADOX
The market didn't know what to do with this.
The Dow initially surged 250 points on hopes that a strong economy will fuel earnings, but by mid-morning the rally evaporated. Megacaps fell, the Nazzy turned negative, and Treasuries got crushed because stronger jobs = higher wages = stickier inflation = fewer rate cuts = higher for longer.
Two-year yields spiked to 3.55%, the biggest single-day move since October. The 10-year pushed to 4.17%. Bitcoin sank to $67,000 as the "crypto needs easy money" thesis took another hit, and the software ETF dropped another 2.6% because apparently there is no floor.
Friday's CPI is the next domino. If inflation comes in cool, the market breathes. If it comes in hot on top of these jobs numbers, the "higher for longer" narrative fully takes hold and we could see another leg down.
Two paths, and CPI Friday decides which one we're walking. 🚦
BOTTOM LINE
DON'T TRUST THE FIRST PRINT
The biggest takeaway today isn't that January was good, it's that 2025 was way worse than we were told.
898K ghost jobs, every single month revised down. If you were making investment decisions based on the real-time BLS data last year, you were flying blind.
The bright side: January's 130K suggests the bleeding has slowed. Healthcare is still hiring, construction is still building, and the frozen labor market might be starting to thaw. But with wages running hot and The Landlord watching closely, don't expect any relief on rates soon.
All eyes on CPI Friday. Stay locked in. 🔒
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for entertainment and educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors. We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time.
Nothing here is financial advice. We don't know your risk tolerance, your portfolio, or how many times you've panic-sold at the bottom. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into anything we mention.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." If you can't afford to lose it, don't trade it.
We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly. 🍪
