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SPECIAL EDITION
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THE HANGOVER
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24 hours ago the market was popping bottles.
Oil crashed 16%. The Dow ripped 1,000 points. Your group chat declared world peace.
This morning? Oil blew back above $102. The ceasefire is cracking (but the market went from red to green just before lunch time). The Fed just dropped the word hike.
Advil time after this morning's session.
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THE INSIDER EDGE
IT TOOK 12 HOURS
That's how long the ceasefire held before everything started falling apart.
Israel launched its biggest strike of the entire war on Lebanon. Over 100 targets in one barrage. 182 killed in a single day. Iran called it a violation and shut the Strait of Hormuz back down.
Then the dominos. Iran's Lavan refinery got hit. Kuwait took 28 drones to its power grid. Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, roughly 5% of the world's oil processing, was struck. The UAE's main gas complex caught fire.
Only 3 ships have transited the Strait since the truce was announced. Three.
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WTI crude: $102, up 8% today. Yesterday's 16% crash gave back half in less than 24 hours. We told you this truce was two weeks, not two years.
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On top of all that, the Fed's March minutes hit yesterday. The vibe? "Growing openness to rate hikes." Some officials want to signal willingness to raise rates if inflation stays hot. CPI drops tomorrow morning. It's expected to be ugly.
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EXCLUSIVE OPPORTUNITY • SPONSORED
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REVEALED: MUSK'S "HIDDEN SUPPLIER" FOR SPACEX
Musk's SpaceX is now valued at $1.75 trillion...
But the company's "hidden supplier" is trading around $33, is set to deliver 6.8 million chips DAILY to SpaceX, and is essential for Musk's new "Orbital AI" breakthrough.
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ON OUR RADAR
THE MORNING TAPE
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$INTC — $60.80 +3.1%
Intel just expanded a multiyear deal with Google to co-build AI chips and custom processors. Days ago they joined Musk's "Terafab" project with SpaceX and xAI. Talks with Amazon for chip packaging too. KeyBanc bumped their target to $70. The Intel comeback thesis is getting louder every week.
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$PLTR — $130.44 -7.3%
Palantir is getting torched. Traders are passing around Michael Burry claims that Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch in enterprise AI. OpenAI just said it's targeting $100B in ad revenue by 2030. The AI moat (competitive advantage) that justified a 200x P/E is looking thin. Not a buy here, but watching the $120 zone for a potential bounce.
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$XLE — $58.74 +1.2%
Most-hated sector yesterday, down 4.2% on the ceasefire. Already bouncing as oil rips back above $102. The Abqaiq hit and Saudi pipeline attack remind us this war isn't over. If the truce keeps cracking, the energy names everyone dumped could be the contrarian trade of the week.
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$AMAT — $395.00 +2.4%
Yesterday's Blueprint (trade setup) just hit its 52-week high of $395.95 this morning. We laid out the $365-$380 entry zone yesterday for patient buyers. If it holds above $396, analyst targets of $430-$450 are the next magnet. The 2nm chip tools catalyst is working.
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CATALYST WATCH
THREE PLAYS NOBODY SEES COMING
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We pulled our catalyst database. Three non-earnings events in the next three weeks with hard dates. Mark them.
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APR 20–30 • TECH VALIDATION • SMALL CAP
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$PESI — PERMA-FIX • ~$200M CAP • $12.23 +5.6%
Perma-Fix treats hazardous waste. They're testing a system that could triple their capacity to destroy PFAS, the "forever chemicals" that the EPA is forcing cities to clean up. Hundreds of billions in mandated remediation ahead. If this tech validates, the big environmental funds may have to own this name. Early, small, and nobody's watching.
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APR 22–24 • GOOGLE CLOUD NEXT • LAS VEGAS
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$GOOG + $INTC — AI INFRASTRUCTURE
Google's biggest annual event. Last year they dropped 229 product announcements in three days. This year's focus is Agentic AI, systems that execute tasks instead of just chatting. Intel is showcasing their expanded partnership. GOOG is actually down today, meaning the event isn't priced in. Watch both names the week of April 20.
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APR 26 • EXACT DATE • PRODUCT LAUNCH
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$CRS — CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY • ~$11B CAP • $433
Specialty alloy maker for aerospace, defense, and medical devices. Launching a next-gen high-entropy alloy platform for surgical implants on April 26. The stock is up 100%+ in a year and most retail traders have never heard of it. A $5.19 billion TAM by 2035. Exact date, real momentum.
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TOMORROW: March CPI drops Friday morning. It's expected to be the hottest print in years. Hot number means rate hike talk gets louder. Cool number means the market could rip again. Set your alerts.
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THE BOTTOM LINE
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Yesterday was the sugar rush. Today is the hangover. Oil above $102, ceasefire fraying, Fed whispering hikes.
Don't chase, don't panic. Build your watchlist for the catalyst dates we flagged. The next three weeks are loaded.
Stay Locked In.
— The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz
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DISCLAIMER
We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time. That combination is either genius or a liability, and we honestly aren't sure which one yet.
Nothing here is financial advice. Seriously. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into something you read in a newsletter written by an ape in a hoodie.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." It will humble you. It humbles us too. That's the game.
We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trading and investing is risky. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly.
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