FEB. 13, 2026
Inflation is cooling, the market barely cared, because the AI fear virus just jumped to a new sector.
| DAILY MARKET BRIEF |
| MARKET PULSE | AT CLOSE • FEB 13 |
| S&P 500 | 6,836 ▲ 0.05% | NASDAQ | 22,547 ▼ 0.2% |
| DOW | 49,501 ▲ 0.1% | BTC | ~$70,200 recovering |
| 10Y YIELD | 4.04% ▼ (Nov low) | VIX | 20.60 |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.4% (beat!) | SCHW | ▼ 10.8% (week) |
Happy Friday the 13th.
Fitting.
The CPI report came in cooler than expected this morning and on any normal Friday, this would've been a victory lap for the bulls.
Inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December, the best read since May 2025. Core CPI hit 2.5%, the lowest since spring 2021.
That's legitimately good data.
Instead?
The S&P barely moved, and the Nazzy closed red.
Because this market has a bigger problem than inflation right now, and it got worse this week.
Friday the 13th energy. The vibes are cursed. 🐈⬛
THE DATA
THE LANDLORD GOT SOME RELIEF
Let's give credit where it's due.
The January CPI was clean.
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 2.4% vs 2.5% est ✅ |
| Headline CPI (MoM) | 0.2% vs 0.3% est ✅ |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.5% (lowest since spring '21) |
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% (in line) |
This is the lowest headline CPI since before Liberation Day tariffs.
Energy fell 1.5%. Shelter only rose 0.2% for the month, dragging the annual shelter number down to 3%. Eggs fell 7% after their absolutely insane run last year.
Heather Long from Navy Federal Credit Union called it "great news on inflation" and said food, gas, and rent are all cooling off.
That's the stuff that actually hits your wallet.
The 10-year yield dropped to 4.04%, its lowest since November.
Traders immediately bumped their Fed cut expectations to 61 basis points for the year, up from 58.
June is looking like the next move.
And here's the thing nobody on CNBC is saying out loud.
A portfolio manager at Globalt Investments connected the dots live on air. AI is creating downward pressure on inflation AND upward pressure on unemployment at the same time.
"How do we think that everyone was going to win and there wouldn't be a loser?"
That might be the most honest thing anyone on financial television has said all year.
CPI beat. Nobody cared. 🚶
THE WARNING
THE VIRUS JUMPED SECTORS
The contagion is spreading, sector by sector. 🦠
This is the part that should concern you more than any CPI print.
The SaaSpocalypse started in software two weeks ago, and this week it metastasized. The AI disruption fear jumped to financial services, real estate, and trucking.
These aren't theoretical risks anymore, the market is actively repricing which entire industries AI agents can hollow out.
THIS WEEK'S CASUALTIES
| Charles Schwab (SCHW) | ▼ 10.8% weekly |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | ▼ 4.9% weekly |
| Cisco (CSCO) | ▼ ~10% Thu (worst since '22) |
| Apple (AAPL) | ▼ 5% (biggest drop since Apr) |
| Workday (WDAY) | ▼ 11% weekly |
| Booking Holdings | 52-week low (Oct '24 level) |
| Trade Desk (TTD) | 52-week low (Apr '20 level) |
Schwab getting hammered nearly 11% in a single week tells you everything about where this is heading.
The market is asking a very simple question: if AI agents can do research, build portfolios, and execute trades, how many human financial advisors do you actually need?
It's the same logic that killed the software stocks, now being applied to brokerages.
Cisco got crushed roughly 10% on Thursday after a gloomy profit outlook even though revenue hit a record $15.3 billion. Rising memory prices are squeezing their margins, and CNBC called it Cisco's worst day since 2022.
Apple shed 5% on reports that its Siri overhaul could be delayed further, plus FTC scrutiny on their news app.
When your AI strategy is basically "we'll get back to you," the market is not going to be patient.
Meanwhile, home sales posted their biggest monthly drop since February 2022 and Trade Desk hit levels not seen since April 2020.
This isn't a normal selloff, it's a sector-by-sector audit of who AI can replace.
THE FLIP SIDE
WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING
There is money moving, it's just not going where you'd expect.
Consumer staples are the third-best performing sector in the S&P this year, energy and materials are leading.
Stuff you can touch, stuff AI can't code away.
People are hiding in Costco, not Cloudflare.
Bitcoin clawed back above $70K on the cool CPI print, which tells you crypto still responds to the macro even while it's getting beaten up by the broader risk-off move.
If you've been waiting for a re-entry on BTC, the CPI just gave you a data point, but it's still down 40%+ from October's high so proceed with respect.
BOTTOM LINE
CPI WAS THE APPETIZER. AI IS THE MAIN COURSE.
The S&P 500 is down two straight weeks, the Nazzy has fallen three in a row.
On any normal Friday, a CPI beat like this would have the bulls doing a victory lap.
Instead the market shrugged it off.
Because inflation isn't the main character of this story anymore, AI disruption is.
We're watching this contagion closely.
First it was software, then legal and publishing... now it's financials, real estate, and logistics.
The market is working through a sector-by-sector repricing of what the AI agent era actually means for headcount, revenue, and ultimately your stock price.
Here's what's on the radar heading into next week:
| 🔴 Monday is closed for Presidents' Day, enjoy the breather because you earned it this week. |
| 🟡 The market needs to figure out if the SaaSpocalypse fear is overdone or if we're still in the early innings of a much bigger repricing. |
| 🟢 The 10-year at 4.04% is the bond market whispering that The Landlord might have to move sooner than he's letting on. Two cuts now priced in for 2026. |
| 🔴 Watch the contagion map, every week it's jumping to a new sector. Software became legal tech, became financials, became real estate... logistics might be next. |
| 🟢 If you're sitting in consumer staples or energy, congrats, you're in the right place. If you're in SaaS, check your stops and don't be a Squatter. |
Enjoy the long weekend.
Touch some grass. Eat some Cookiez. 🍪
We're going to need that energy.
Main Street Betz is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice. We may hold positions mentioned. Always do your own research. Trade your own plan. Eat your own Cookiez. 🍪
