JAN. 27, 2026
The greenback is bleeding out. The carry trade is unwinding. Here's how to eat Cookiez on the collapse.
| DAILY MARKET BRIEF |
MARKET PULSE
| DXY | 96.16 | USD/JPY | 156.65 |
| DOLLAR YTD | ▼ 11%+ | FED MEETING | Wednesday |
| worst year since 1973 | The Landlord is sweating | ||
The greenback woke up today and chose to lose. Fourth straight session of bleeding.
We are witnessing a "Sell America" trade in real time.
DXY: 96.16. Lowest since February 2022. It's so over.
INSIDER EDGE
THE YEN CARRY TRADE EXPLAINED
Okay, let me break this down so it actually makes sense.
For two decades, Japan has been running the world's cheapest ATM. Interest rates near zero. So big money did what big money does… they borrowed yen for basically free, then bought higher-yielding assets like U.S. stocks and Treasuries.
Free money glitch, right?
Wrong.
Think of it like using your friend's credit card to gamble in Vegas. Works great until your friend wants his money back. That's exactly what's happening now.
Free money glitch? Your friend wants his money back.
The Bank of Japan just raised rates to 0.75% — the highest since 1995 — and signaled more hikes are coming. Suddenly, that "free" yen loan isn't so free. Japanese 10-year bond yields just hit 2.09%, the highest since 1999. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is stuck. He can't cut rates because inflation is still mid, but he also can't hike because the economy is cooked.
The math has flipped. Japanese investors are looking at their own bonds and thinking, "Why am I chasing 4% in America when I can get 2% at home with zero currency risk?"
So they're selling U.S. assets, converting dollars back to yen, and going home. That's hundreds of billions of dollars in positions unwinding. No cap.
When everyone runs for the exit at once? That's when things get violent. We saw it last August when the Nasdaq dropped 13% in less than a month when this trade started blowing up.
The yen carry trade unwind isn't a theory. It's happening in real time. Hundreds of billions of dollars are leaving U.S. assets and going home to Japan. The last time this blew up, the Nasdaq dropped 13% in a month.
PREDICTION MARKET CORNER
WHAT THE MONEY SAYS
The Suits on CNBC are calling this a "temporary correction." LOL.
Here's what the money says:
Translation: dollar weakness on steroids.
Meanwhile, there's chatter about a joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention. The New York Fed did rate checks last Friday. The market interpreted this as a signal that America might actually help Japan prop up the yen.
Think about that. The U.S. government potentially helping to make the dollar weaker on purpose.
We are so back if you're positioned correctly. It's so over if you're long dollars.
THE BLUEPRINT
HOW TO EAT COOKIEZ ON DOLLAR DESTRUCTION
| $FXY | TRADE #1 |
Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
The Vibe: Pure yen exposure. When the yen moons, this ETF moons.
Why We Like It: The BOJ is tightening. The carry trade is unwinding. Japanese institutions are repatriating capital. Every macro tailwind points toward yen strength.
| ENTRY | ~$57.75 |
| STOP LOSS (PUKE POINT) | $54.50 (-5.6%) |
| TARGET (COOKIEZ) | $63.00 (+9%) |
| RISK | 6/10 |
The Play: This is a pure bet on yen appreciation vs. the dollar. No leverage, no futures, just straight exposure. The BOJ is hiking, the Fed is stuck, and Japanese money is coming home. The thesis is simple.
| $UDN | TRADE #2 |
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
The Vibe: Shorting the dollar against a basket of six major currencies (euro, yen, pound, CAD, Swedish krona, Swiss franc).
Why We Like It: If the "Sell America" trade continues — and all signs say it will — UDN is how you profit without messing with futures or forex accounts. The fund is up 12%+ over the past year. Inflows have been strong. The narrative is your friend here.
| ENTRY | ~$19.50 |
| STOP LOSS (PUKE POINT) | $18.50 (-5.1%) |
| TARGET (COOKIEZ) | $21.50 (+10%) |
| RISK | 7/10 |
The Play: UDN tracks short positions on the DXY. The dollar is testing 18-year support levels. If it breaks below 96, technicians are calling for a move toward 85. That's a lot of Dough to be made.
BOTTOM LINE
The dollar is at a 4-year low and the macro picture says it's going lower. The Landlord is cornered. Japanese money is leaving. The "Sell America" trade is real.
If you've been sitting in cash or dollar-denominated assets, you're Paying Rent through currency debasement and you don't even realize it. International stocks, commodities, and foreign currencies are mogging the dollar this year.
The Blueprint is clear: $FXY for pure yen strength, $UDN for broad dollar weakness.
Don't be a Squatter holding a currency that's bleeding out. Get on the right side of this trade.
— The Lead Editor, Main Street Betz
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is for entertainment and educational purposes only. We are not financial advisors. We are a bunch of apes who figured out how to use a Bloomberg Terminal and a group chat at the same time.
Nothing here is financial advice. We don't know your risk tolerance, your portfolio, or how many times you've panic-sold at the bottom. Do your own research. Talk to an actual licensed professional before you YOLO your savings into anything we mention.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The market doesn't care about your feelings, your conviction, or your "diamond hands." If you can't afford to lose it, don't trade it.
We may hold positions in securities mentioned. Trade at your own risk. Eat Cookiez responsibly. 🍪
